Statistics can mean whatever the issuer will want them to mean. Every now and then there is a statistic that clearly identifies a coming trend. Today I read one on Barry Ritholtz blog here.
If 53% of people 25 years or younger with a bachelor degree are out of work, what does that imply for the future of job creation? This is a situation where students are taking out loans to study pressured from a societal point of view but do not reap the benefits from a results point of view (getting a job). An arbitrage view on this would be to take advantage of the bust that will eventually occur in student loans and the boom that will be on individuals going and starting business or opportunities for themselves. It can only be so long until unemployed people have their hand out and realise that if they want something, they will have to go out and make it happen.
· 1 out of 2 college grads – about 1.5 million, or about 53.6 percent, of bachelor’s degree holders age 25 or younger – were unemployed or underemployed in 2011.
· For high school grads (age 17-20), the unemployment rate was 31.1 percent from April 2011-March 2012; underemployment was 54 percent.
· For young college grads (age 21-24), unemployment was 9.4 percent last year, whileunderemployment was 19.1 percent.
· According to some researchers, up to 95 percent of job positions lost occurred in low-tech, middle-income jobs like bank tellers. Gains in jobs are going to workers at the top or the bottom, not in the middle.
· More college graduates are getting low-level jobs, period. U.S. bachelor’s degree holders are more likely to wait tables, tend bar or become food-service helpers than to be employed as engineers, physicists, chemists or mathematicians combined – 100,000 versus 90,000.
· According to new U.S. government projections, only three of the 30 occupations with the largest projected number of job openings in the next eight years will require a bachelor’s degree or higher. Most job openings by 2020 will be in low-wage professions like retail sales, fast food and truck driving.
Of course this is easier said than done and there is a lot of complexity in the middle of it. This is where you go long on libertarian business creators and go short on student loans to converge back to the mean between the two. The future of education will need to adapt to the problems that it faces. What this means I am not quite sure, there are profit opportunities to be made from this scenario though.